? Switch to Which Bank. The Rise and Rise of CBA.

By Kenneth Robson on February 14, 2013 • ( 0 )

Which Bank to Switch to

I have chosen to check the charts for the Commonwealth Bank of Australia after it announced an outstanding profit report for the first half of the 2012-2013 financial year. The CBA is Australia‘s second largest company by market capitalization.

Highlights in the Profit Result

Statutory Profit of $3661 million
Cash NPAT $3780 million
Return on Equity of 18.1%
Cash earnings per share of 235.5c.
Dividend in cents per share – 164c

Recent Technical Analysis Milestones

The share price has been in an uptrend since the week of September 23 2011, when it was at a low of $42.30
The uptrend appeared to have peaked at $58.04 in the week of August 3 2012, nearly a year later.
After retracing to $53.75 there has been an uninterrupted impulsive move higher to a high yesterday of $67.38. The close today was $66.90 (14th February 2013)
Yesterday’s range with gapping was $1.98 or 3%

Assumptions

There is likely to be a corrective move lower after such an extended impulsive move.
The shares go ex-dividend next week and this is likely to start a retracement.
The first levels of support seem to be $67.74 and then $61.36.
The present uptrend would not be threatened until support is broken at $58.

Deductions

If the uptrend remains intact higher prices would be expected
From the Fibonacci extension levels, the present share price has penetrated the 50% mark.
The next target is at $68, the 61.8% level.
Should this be penetrated the last target is the 100% extension level at $74.

Conclusion

The share price of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia may well reach further records highs over the next twelve months. The overall market is bullish and the key 5000 technical level for the XJO has just been penetrated. If you are not fortunate enough to already own CBA shares, it may still not be too late.

Disclaimer:

This post is a personal view based on technical considerations only. Please do not rely on it in making your own decisions. See full disclaimer page.